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Organised violence · UCDP deaths from organised violence
UCDP estimates 1,009 deaths from organised violence in Tanzania in 2025
The Uppsala Conflict Data Program records a best estimate of 1,009 deaths from organised violence within Tanzania in 2025, with a low estimate of 408 and a high estimate of 2,692.
The best estimate is 1,009, within a range the source
states as 408 to 2,692. The range is the source’s own: this is
published as an estimate coded from reports, not as a count of identified people.
Only conflicts passing a threshold of 25 deaths in a
year are included, so it is not a total of all violent deaths.
Nothing here establishes a cause, a responsibility or a consequence.
The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) at Uppsala University records a best estimate of 1,009 deaths from organised violence within the borders of Tanzania in 2025, in version 26.1 of its country-year dataset. Its low estimate is 408 and its high estimate is 2,692. The best estimate is the sum, over every event UCDP recorded, of the death toll its coders found most reliable in the source material; the low and high figures bound the reporting UCDP considered reliable at all.
UCDP attributes the best estimate to its three categories of organised violence as follows: none to state-based conflict — fighting over government or territory in which at least one party is the government of a state; none to non-state conflict — fighting between organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state; 1,009 to one-sided violence — the use of armed force by a government or an organised group against civilians — with a low estimate of 408 and a high estimate of 2,692. These are UCDP's categories and UCDP's attribution. This brief does not name any party to the violence.
These figures are counts of deaths that UCDP's researchers identified in news reports and other published sources, and they are estimates, not a register of deaths. UCDP states that it is highly conservative in counting fatalities, and its country totals include only violence tied to a conflict or actor that has at some point reached its threshold of 25 deaths in a calendar year, so the figure is best read as a floor. It covers violence within the country's borders whoever the parties were, and says nothing about violence elsewhere in which the country's government took part.
This brief reports the figures UCDP published and nothing beyond them. It does not report who was killed, by whom, or why; it does not establish what any party to a conflict did or intended; and it does not attribute the figure, or any change in it, to any policy, event or decision.
Times
These are different things and are not interchangeable.
Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Country-Year Dataset on Organized Violence within Country Borders. Sundberg & Melander (2013), Journal of Peace Research 50(4).
— Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (UCDP datasets)
Where each figure above comes from (9 values)
Value
As published
Origin
Source field or calculation
Deaths from organised violence, best estimate, Tanzania, 2025
1009 deaths
field
cumulative_total_deaths_in_orgvio_best
UCDP's best estimate: the sum over recorded events of the death toll its coders found most reliable in the source material. An estimate coded from published reports, not a registry of deaths.
Low estimate
408 deaths
field
cumulative_total_deaths_in_orgvio_low
High estimate
2692 deaths
field
cumulative_total_deaths_in_orgvio_high
UCDP excludes claims it considers unreasonable from the high estimate.
Of which state-based conflict, best estimate
0 deaths
field
sb_total_deaths_best
UCDP's category: fighting over government or territory in which at least one party is the government of a state. Low 0, high 0.
Of which non-state conflict, best estimate
0 deaths
field
ns_total_deaths_best
UCDP's category: fighting between organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state. Low 0, high 0.
Of which one-sided violence, best estimate
1009 deaths
field
os_total_deaths_best
UCDP's category: the use of armed force by a government or an organised group against civilians. Low 408, high 2692.
Year
2025
field
year
UCDP dataset version
26.1
field
Version
UCDP revises earlier years in each annual release. Every figure on this page, including the previous year's, is from this version.
Why no comparison is shown
UCDP's best estimate for 2024 is below its inclusion threshold of 25 deaths, so it is not a figure this service publishes or compares against.
calculation
see ingest.adapters.ucdp.UcdpAdapter._compare
Wording template ucdp_country_year version 1.0.
Revision history
17 September 2026, 00:00 UTC — First publication
Assembled from the source record listed under evidence. This record predates the start of this service's coverage and was added when the source was first read.
What this record does not establish
UCDP's own annual estimate of deaths from organised violence within each country's borders, from the reviewed Country-Year Dataset on Organized Violence within Country Borders, with UCDP's low and high estimates beside every best estimate and the total attributed to UCDP's three categories: state-based conflict, non-state conflict and one-sided violence. The figures are annual and arrive about half a year after the year they cover, so this section is quiet for most of the year and then publishes a year's worth at once. These are estimates coded by researchers from news reports and other published sources, not a register of deaths. UCDP describes itself as highly conservative in counting fatalities and counts only violence tied to a conflict or actor that has at some point reached its threshold of 25 deaths in a calendar year, so every figure is best read as a floor, and country-years below that threshold are not published at all: a small total from this dataset does not mean what a reader would take it to mean. No brief names a party to the violence. UCDP publishes the names of the governments and groups involved, the deaths it attributes to each, and separate counts of civilians killed by governments and by armed groups; none of that is read here. UCDP's monthly preliminary event feed is not read either: its records are unreviewed by UCDP's own description, and an automatic account of who killed whom, where and when is reporting on disputed events that this service leaves to human editors. A comparison is only ever a country with its own preceding year, from the same dataset release, given as a difference in deaths and never as a percentage. UCDP revises earlier years in each release, so the previous year's figure on a brief is UCDP's current figure, not the one it published a year earlier.
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