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Organised violence · UCDP deaths from organised violence

UCDP estimates 661 deaths from organised violence in South Sudan in 2025

The Uppsala Conflict Data Program records a best estimate of 661 deaths from organised violence within South Sudan in 2025, with a low estimate of 621 and a high estimate of 825.

The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) at Uppsala University records a best estimate of 661 deaths from organised violence within the borders of South Sudan in 2025, in version 26.1 of its country-year dataset. Its low estimate is 621 and its high estimate is 825. The best estimate is the sum, over every event UCDP recorded, of the death toll its coders found most reliable in the source material; the low and high figures bound the reporting UCDP considered reliable at all.

UCDP attributes the best estimate to its three categories of organised violence as follows: 282 to state-based conflict — fighting over government or territory in which at least one party is the government of a state — with a low estimate of 277 and a high estimate of 446; 361 to non-state conflict — fighting between organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state — with a low estimate of 326 and a high estimate of 361; 18 to one-sided violence — the use of armed force by a government or an organised group against civilians — with a low estimate of 18 and a high estimate of 18. These are UCDP's categories and UCDP's attribution. This brief does not name any party to the violence.

In the same version of the dataset UCDP's best estimate for South Sudan in 2024 is 697 deaths, with a low estimate of 623 and a high estimate of 702, so the 2025 best estimate is 36 fewer than the year before. That is the difference between two estimates whose ranges may overlap, not a measured change. UCDP revises earlier years in each release, so its figure for 2024 may differ from what it published a year ago. No percentage change is given.

These figures are counts of deaths that UCDP's researchers identified in news reports and other published sources, and they are estimates, not a register of deaths. UCDP states that it is highly conservative in counting fatalities, and its country totals include only violence tied to a conflict or actor that has at some point reached its threshold of 25 deaths in a calendar year, so the figure is best read as a floor. It covers violence within the country's borders whoever the parties were, and says nothing about violence elsewhere in which the country's government took part.

This brief reports the figures UCDP published and nothing beyond them. It does not report who was killed, by whom, or why; it does not establish what any party to a conflict did or intended; and it does not attribute the figure, or any change in it, to any policy, event or decision.

Times

These are different things and are not interchangeable.

Reporting period: 2025
Published here: 17 September 2026, 00:02 UTC

Evidence

Original record: https://ucdp.uu.se/country/626
Record identifier: organizedviolencecy:626:2025
Retrieved: 17 September 2026, 00:00 UTC
Snapshot checksum: 3b2195da1ea9067287fbb42e5cfd4399b72663cdfcfc2522bf2367f70224fa25
Attribution: Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Country-Year Dataset on Organized Violence within Country Borders. Sundberg & Melander (2013), Journal of Peace Research 50(4). — Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (UCDP datasets)

Where each figure above comes from (10 values)

Value	As published	Origin	Source field or calculation
Deaths from organised violence, best estimate, South Sudan, 2025	661 deaths	field	cumulative_total_deaths_in_orgvio_best UCDP's best estimate: the sum over recorded events of the death toll its coders found most reliable in the source material. An estimate coded from published reports, not a registry of deaths.
Low estimate	621 deaths	field	cumulative_total_deaths_in_orgvio_low
High estimate	825 deaths	field	cumulative_total_deaths_in_orgvio_high UCDP excludes claims it considers unreasonable from the high estimate.
Of which state-based conflict, best estimate	282 deaths	field	sb_total_deaths_best UCDP's category: fighting over government or territory in which at least one party is the government of a state. Low 277, high 446.
Of which non-state conflict, best estimate	361 deaths	field	ns_total_deaths_best UCDP's category: fighting between organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state. Low 326, high 361.
Of which one-sided violence, best estimate	18 deaths	field	os_total_deaths_best UCDP's category: the use of armed force by a government or an organised group against civilians. Low 18, high 18.
Year	2025	field	year
UCDP dataset version	26.1	field	Version UCDP revises earlier years in each annual release. Every figure on this page, including the previous year's, is from this version.
Previous year (2024), best estimate	697 deaths	field	cumulative_total_deaths_in_orgvio_best (previous year's row) Same country, same dataset version, immediately preceding year.
Change on the previous year	36 deaths	calculation	best - previous_best A difference between two estimates, in deaths. No percentage is given, and the low and high estimates of the two years overlap more often than not.

Wording template ucdp_country_year version 1.0.

Revision history

17 September 2026, 00:00 UTC — First publication

Assembled from the source record listed under evidence. This record predates the start of this service's coverage and was added when the source was first read.

Limits of this brief

UCDP's own annual estimate of deaths from organised violence within each country's borders, from the reviewed Country-Year Dataset on Organized Violence within Country Borders, with UCDP's low and high estimates beside every best estimate and the total attributed to UCDP's three categories: state-based conflict, non-state conflict and one-sided violence. The figures are annual and arrive about half a year after the year they cover, so this section is quiet for most of the year and then publishes a year's worth at once. These are estimates coded by researchers from news reports and other published sources, not a register of deaths. UCDP describes itself as highly conservative in counting fatalities and counts only violence tied to a conflict or actor that has at some point reached its threshold of 25 deaths in a calendar year, so every figure is best read as a floor, and country-years below that threshold are not published at all: a small total from this dataset does not mean what a reader would take it to mean. No brief names a party to the violence. UCDP publishes the names of the governments and groups involved, the deaths it attributes to each, and separate counts of civilians killed by governments and by armed groups; none of that is read here. UCDP's monthly preliminary event feed is not read either: its records are unreviewed by UCDP's own description, and an automatic account of who killed whom, where and when is reporting on disputed events that this service leaves to human editors. A comparison is only ever a country with its own preceding year, from the same dataset release, given as a difference in deaths and never as a percentage. UCDP revises earlier years in each release, so the previous year's figure on a brief is UCDP's current figure, not the one it published a year earlier.

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